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Every horse race is made of favorites and outsiders. Many times the outsider charges to cross the finish line first, winning a healthy sum for punters who back the horse.
But how do you know which horse has the ability to beat the best in the field? We’re going to show you how to identify an outsider horse that could possibly bring you success!
Who is the outsider?
Many people believe that picking a winning outsider is related to two things – one based on statistics and the other based on the horses recent form, and the jockey.
By combining these two factors it is possible to pick out an outsider with a real chance.
In regards to statistics, a survey over a three year period demonstrated that in flat handicap races horses the top weights have the best chance of success.
According to the statistics, 48% of the winners of all flat handicaps are one of the top four in the weights whereas 62% of all winners come from the top six in the weights.
This means that any horse good enough to reach the first four in each of it’s last three races have a chance of reaching that place again and may even win.
Why favorites lose
Some punters do not agree with the outsider system and will always back the favorites, however, favorites do not win the majority of races. Punters often claim that a race was fixed when when a favorite loses, especially when odds are in their favor. They blame the jockey if they think he rode incorrectly, accuse the trainer of cheating, or even blame another runner for nudging their horse.
However, racing is a really uncertain sport.
There are many reasons why favorites lose such as:
- Horse’s form has peaked.
- The competitor ran his fastest ever time in the last race.
- Trainer’s overconfidence in a recent winner and place him in a race which is out of his depth.
- Race is too competitive.
- Statistics are wrong.
There are too many elements in a race to call a clear winner.
Therefore, being more adventurous, by backing the outsider, can more then likely pay off extremely well. So the next time you are thinking of backing a horse why not use the outsider system explained above and chance your luck!
The Outsider System
This is done by applying a sliding scale based on the number of runners in a race.
It is important to remember, in a big field it is necessary to examine a wider range of high weighted horses than in a race with fewer runners and in handicaps of ten or less contestants are ignored because starting prices are unlikely to be big enough.
The outsider system is as follows:
- In races with more than 15 runners you must consider the first six in the weights
- In races with 13 or 14 runners consider the first five in the weights
- In races with 11 or 12 runners – consider the first four in the weights
The scale can be used for every handicap race on any given day.
Firstly, note any horse which came first, second, third or fourth in each of its last three public meetings and which comes in the weight range for the number of runners in it’s race .
Any horse which fulfils the criteria is considered an outsider and has a extremely high possibility of winning that race.
Lets imagine you are about to bet on a horse race with 12 Runners.
- From the 12 runners in the race you look at the race sheet
- From the race sheets identify the 4 horses with the highest weight on the sheet
- From these top 4 weighted horse and note any of the four which came 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the last THREE races.
- Any horse which placed in the top 4 in the last three races and is an outsider horse is worth placing a bet on
Interested in more horse racing tips? Why not read our dedicated article here!